Takeaways
- BYD raised its 2026 overseas target to 1.5 million units as oil prices rose from US$60 to above US$100 per barrel, accelerating consumer shift to EVs in markets including Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines.
- BYD’s domestic sales fell 30.1% in Q1 2026 and annual net profit declined 19% in 2025, the first profit drop since 2021, highlighting the contrast between overseas momentum and domestic margin pressure.
According to multiple reports citing a closed‑door briefing on April 9, BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu told analysts that the Strait of Hormuz closure is driving overseas sales to “another level”. The company has raised its internal overseas sales target for 2026 from 1.3 million to 1.5 million units.
Wang singled out Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines as markets where daily sales volumes now match what previously took two weeks to achieve. The oil price has risen from around US$60 a barrel at the start of the year to above US$100 in April.
Domestic Pressure Contrasts With Export Surge
BYD‘s domestic situation remains strained. The company posted a 19% decline in annual net profit in 2025, its first fall since 2021, on revenue growth of just 3%. Local sales have been down significantly throughout the first three months of 2026, with overall Q1 volumes falling by 30.1%.
A sustained price war in China has compressed margins across the market. Overseas sales now represent BYD’s primary route to profitable growth.
European Demand Signals Strengthen
In the UK, battery electric vehicle registrations hit a record 86,120 units in March, a 24.2% year‑on‑year increase. In Germany, the online platform mobile.de reported that the share of EV searches on its website tripled from 12% to 36% since the conflict began, with car dealers receiving 66% more enquiries for used EVs than in February. Geely’s first‑quarter exports grew more than 150% year‑on‑year, while Chery shipped 243,000 vehicles in January and February alone, up 45.6%.
The Open Question
A US‑Iran two‑week ceasefire was announced on April 8, and Brent crude oil fell below US$100 per barrel following the agreement. The oil shock has compressed into weeks a demand shift that might otherwise have taken months or even years.
The open question is whether BYD can sustain this overseas momentum over a longer period, particularly if the conflict subsides and oil prices normalise.
